Chalk of the Day, 8 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber to homer
The chalkiest selection on the 8 August board, in Jesse's own words, published as written.
Written by Jesse, NegativeEV. Last updated 8 August 2026.
Watch: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ln47UXL9gvs
- Sample: 5,000 pitch-by-pitch simulations of one game
- Window: 8 August 2026 slate
- Priced at: +231, read on the day of the game
- Measured: 2026-08-08
The bet
:
| Selection | Kyle Schwarber, any-time home run |
|---|---|
| Game | Toronto at Philadelphia, Citizens Bank Park |
| Price | +231 |
| That price implies | 30.2% |
| Our simulations say | 27.1% |
| Gap | -3.1 points |
| Verdict | Negative EV |
| EV | -10% |
| Becomes break-even at | +269 |
What follows is Jesse's script for the 8 August episode, word for word. The headings and the figures are ours.
The price
Here's a new one: Kyle Schwarber, any-time Home Run, +231. An absurd price considering how he's been playing lately. I'm imagining all the people doubling-down on this one since his last home run. "He's due!!!"
The +231 price implies a 30.2% chance he hits a home run.
Our sims have him hitting a home run 27.1% of the time. So this is outside the margin of error, very definitely a Negative EV play. -10% EV to be exact.
Why
Okay, why? What do our sims know that all the suckers betting him today don't?
Unfortunately, not much.
A few items surfaced in our neutralizations of this match-up, but none really cleared the noise floor so this is most likely a case of "he's just over-priced". But I'll name a few things that could have been dragging him down in our sims: his recent form, the fact that he's playing at home and therefore not guaranteed the final half inning (which decreases potential at-bats), and the rest of the lineup not hitting well-enough to _get_ him those extra times through the order. For Schwarber, every at-bat gives him 6% more Home Runs in our sims. So if you're confident he'll step to the plate 6 times today, then this is a positive EV play.
What is working for him
Funny enough, Schwarber does have some things working FOR him today that did clear the noise floor. First, his own career profile as a hitter plus his full-season form. He is still Kyle Schwarber, National League leader in home runs, regardless of his recent form.
It's also a good match-up for him. Scherzer hasn't pitched a ton this year, but from what we've seen, his HR rate is up over his career, and his K rate is down. This hasn't been the same Scherzer we're used to seeing.
What we neutralised, one at a time
Every factor is switched off on its own and the game is re-simulated, so each row is that factor's own contribution rather than a story told after the fact.
Working for the home run - take it away and the number falls:
:
| Factor | Worth | Neutralised |
|---|---|---|
| His own career profile - who he is as a hitter | ~8.8 points | 27.1% to 18.3% |
| His own season form | ~3.4 points | 27.1% to 23.7% |
| Max Scherzer's season form | ~2.9 points | 27.1% to 24.2% |
Working against the home run: nothing cleared its own noise floor. His recent form came in at +0.6 points, batting on the home side at +0.4, and what Scherzer has been throwing lately at +0.2 - every one of those ranges crosses zero, so there is a direction on none of them.
Verdict
So it should be an interesting one. There's still a 27% chance Schwarber goes deep today. I'd love to see it. It's been a rough stretch for him. But this is still a grossly Negative EV play.
And that's it. Our Chalk of the Day, August 8, 2026. Once again, Kyle Schwarber.
Thank you.
The claims, checked
His last home run was on 18 July, 21 days and 70 plate appearances before this game - one home run in the 18 games since the All-Star break, with a 36% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Max Scherzer had thrown 584 pitches this season; across the 140 batters he has faced, his home run rate is .052 against a .044 career mark and his strikeout rate is .165 against .254. Citizens Bank Park ranks 9th of 30 for home runs, park factor 1.16. Across the 5,000 simulations Schwarber comes to the plate 4.58 times on average and goes deep on 6.7% of those trips.
Method
The game is simulated pitch by pitch 5,000 times from the projected lineups, and the prop is graded on how often it lands. Each factor above is a separate 4,000-simulation re-run of the same game with one input replaced by a league-average stand-in, so those sizes are one-at-a-time swings and do not add up to the total. Thirty-eight factors were neutralised for this bet, and twelve came back with a direction we can stand behind.
Inside the noise floor
One prop in one game is a single draw. A 27.1% event happens more than a quarter of the time, so this being a bad price is entirely consistent with Schwarber homering. We check a price the public is already taking. We do not pick it.
Written up for readers: https://negativeev.com/about/home-run-props All findings: https://negativeev.com/research