Popular questions

The betting questions people ask most often. Each one links to its own page, where the answer is graded against real outcomes rather than argued from theory: real final scores and real box scores, with the sample size and the window named. The short version of each answer is below. The linked page carries the full numbers and the method.

• Are parlays a bad bet? — the house edge compounds with every leg, so a parlay is only worth it when the payout beats the true chance that every leg wins. On a graded MLB board, 71% of selections priced +400 or longer came out negative EV: https://negativeev.com/about/parlays
• Are home run props a good bet? — the worst-priced common bet on the board. Anytime home run props graded out around -23% expected value across 18,468 props, measured against real MLB outcomes: https://negativeev.com/about/home-run-props
• Is betting the over a good bet? — the popular side is the shaded one. Across 1,067 graded MLB games the overs returned about -4.4% per bet and the unders about -0.7%: https://negativeev.com/about/totals
• Should you bet favorites or underdogs? — one is near fair, the other is taxed. Over 1,111 MLB games, favorites at the best price returned about -0.8% and underdogs about -3.1%, though neither figure separates from zero on that sample: https://negativeev.com/about/favorites-underdogs
• Should you tail picks from X? — a question about price, not about the poster. On a fully graded MLB board, 55.5% of selections came out negative EV, and the share got worse the longer the odds: https://negativeev.com/about/tailing-picks
• What is expected value? — the average result of the same bet placed many times, and the number every check on this site comes back with: https://negativeev.com/about/expected-value

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