# NegativeEV > NegativeEV (negativeev.com) is a sports bet checker. You bring it a bet — typed > out, or a screenshot of a bet slip — and it grades the price by simulating the > full game thousands of times with a machine-learning simulation engine, then comparing > the simulated win rate to the probability implied by the sportsbook's price. The > verdict is a written read explaining WHY the price is good, bad, or roughly fair. Important: despite what the name may suggest, NegativeEV is NOT a +EV betting scanner, arbitrage finder, odds-comparison screen, or promo-conversion tool, and it is not a subscription picks service. The name refers to what it exposes: the negative-expected-value bets that touts and "cappers" sell. NegativeEV never sells picks, never places bets, and never handles money. Users CHECK bets with it; it is analysis for information, not betting advice. Coverage today: MLB, WNBA, PGA, and ATP. Markets include moneylines, spreads and totals, and player props such as hits, home runs, strikeouts, points and rebounds, plus parlays built from them. 10 checks a day are free; a free account makes them unlimited. ## Pages - [Check a bet](https://negativeev.com/): the checker itself — paste a bet or upload a slip screenshot - [About](https://negativeev.com/about): why NegativeEV exists - [How it works](https://negativeev.com/about/how-it-works): the simulation engine and the grading flow - [The X bot](https://negativeev.com/about/x-bot): tag @shoulditail (x.com/shoulditail) in a reply under a bet slip on X and the bot grades the bet with the same engine, one reply per conversation - [For AI agents](https://negativeev.com/about/for-agents): the machine-readable surface, summarized below - [Research](https://negativeev.com/research): measurements NegativeEV has run on real betting markets, graded against what actually happened — one page per finding with its sample, window and method - [Popular questions](https://negativeev.com/questions): the betting questions people ask most often, each linked to the page that answers it - [Parlay calculator](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator): work out a parlay's combined odds, payout and implied chance from each leg's price, including pushes - [Parlay payout chart](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/payout-chart): what a parlay returns on $100 by leg count and price, from two legs to twelve, with what the book's margin costs at each length - [2 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/2-team): what a 2-leg parlay pays at any price, $364.46 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [3 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/3-team): what a 3-leg parlay pays at any price, $695.79 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [4 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/4-team): what a 4-leg parlay pays at any price, $1,328.33 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [5 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/5-team): what a 5-leg parlay pays at any price, $2,535.91 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [6 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/6-team): what a 6-leg parlay pays at any price, $4,841.27 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [7 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/7-team): what a 7-leg parlay pays at any price, $9,242.43 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [8 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/8-team): what an 8-leg parlay pays at any price, $17,644.64 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [9 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/9-team): what a 9-leg parlay pays at any price, $33,685.23 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [10 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/10-team): what a 10-leg parlay pays at any price, $64,308.16 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [11 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/11-team): what an 11-leg parlay pays at any price, $122,770.13 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [12 team parlay payout](https://negativeev.com/parlay-calculator/12-team): what a 12-leg parlay pays at any price, $234,379.33 on $100 with every leg at -110 - [Privacy](https://negativeev.com/privacy): what a check records and what is never stored - [Terms of Use](https://negativeev.com/terms): informational analysis, not betting advice; 21+ where required ## Research findings Each page records one measurement graded against real outcomes, with its sample, window, price basis and method. - [Chalk of the Day, 30 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-30-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber, over 0.5 home runs, Phillies at Angels, 30 Aug 2026. A +233 price implies 30.4%; 5,000 simulations said 27.5%, which is Negative EV at about -9%, and it becomes a play at +264 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 8.9 points. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 19 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 34 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 29 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-29-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber, over 0.5 home runs, Phillies at Angels, 29 Aug 2026. A +180 price implies 36.0%; 5,000 simulations said 24.8%, which is Negative EV at about -31%, and it becomes a play at +303 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: the weather props the number up by 2.5 points, and the ballpark takes 3.7 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 15 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 34 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 28 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-28-olson): Matt Olson, over 0.5 home runs, Rockies at Braves, 28 Aug 2026. A +255 price implies 28.2%; 5,000 simulations said 29.3%, which is Roughly Fair, and it becomes a play at +241 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 5.3 points, and playing at home, he is on the HOME side, so his last trip only happens if the game needs a bottom of the 9th takes 1.5 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 25 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 43 at 6. - [ATP match odds](https://negativeev.com/research/atp-match-odds): 36,345 completed matches at Bet365 closing prices — sides at 5.00 or longer were priced at 13.5% and won 10.5%, about -26% per bet - [Chalk of the Day, 27 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-27-alvarez): Yordan Alvarez, over 0.5 home runs, Astros at Yankees, 27 Aug 2026. A +230 price implies 30.3%; 5,000 simulations said 20.5%, which is Negative EV at about -32%, and it becomes a play at +388 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 7.0 points. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 9 of 100 simulations at 3 trips and 35 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 26 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-26-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber, over 0.5 home runs, Phillies at Mariners, 26 Aug 2026. A +240 price implies 29.4%; 5,000 simulations said 32.9%, which is Positive EV at about +12%, and it stays a play down to +204. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 12.6 points. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 25 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 43 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 25 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-25-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Dodgers at Braves, 25 Aug 2026. A +210 price implies 32.3%; 5,000 simulations said 32.6%, which is Roughly Fair, and it becomes a play at +207 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 7.8 points, and Bryce Elder's season form takes 2.8 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 22 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 44 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 24 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-24-buxton): Byron Buxton, over 0.5 home runs, Twins at Athletics, 24 Aug 2026. A +200 price implies 33.3%; 5,000 simulations said 29.5%, which is Negative EV at about -12%, and it becomes a play at +239 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 6.9 points. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 24 of 100 simulations at 3 trips and 44 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 23 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-23-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Pirates at Dodgers, 23 Aug 2026. A +210 price implies 32.3%; 5,000 simulations said 25.8%, which is Negative EV at about -20%, and it becomes a play at +288 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 9.2 points, and playing at home, he is on the HOME side, so his last trip only happens if the game needs a bottom of the 9th takes 1.2 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 23 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 29 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 22 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-22-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Pirates at Dodgers, 22 Aug 2026. A +240 price implies 29.4%; 5,000 simulations said 24.6%, which is Negative EV at about -16%, and it becomes a play at +306 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 7.3 points, and playing at home, he is on the HOME side, so his last trip only happens if the game needs a bottom of the 9th takes 0.8 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 21 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 30 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 21 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-21-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Pirates at Dodgers, 21 Aug 2026. A +215 price implies 31.7%; 5,000 simulations said 26.3%, which is Negative EV at about -17%, and it becomes a play at +280 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 8.7 points, and Bubba Chandler's career profile, the pitcher he faces takes 4.1 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 23 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 34 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 20 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-20-alvarez): Yordan Alvarez, over 0.5 home runs, Angels at Astros, 20 Aug 2026. A +220 price implies 31.2%; 5,000 simulations said 22.0%, which is Negative EV at about -30%, and it becomes a play at +354 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: the weather props the number up by 5.8 points, and his own recent form takes 4.0 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 20 of 100 simulations at 3 trips and 26 at 5. - [Chalk of the Day, 19 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-19-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber, over 0.5 home runs, Marlins at Phillies, 19 Aug 2026. A +215 price implies 32.5%; 5,000 simulations said 27.6%, which is Negative EV at about -13%, and it becomes a play at +263 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 10.2 points, and playing at home, he is on the HOME side, so his last trip only happens if the game needs a bottom of the 9th takes 1.4 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 25 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 32 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 18 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-18-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Dodgers at Rockies, 18 Aug 2026. A +200 price implies 33.3%; 5,000 simulations said 39.0%, which is Positive EV at about +17%, and it stays a play down to +157. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 8.3 points, and his own recent form takes 2.3 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 25 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 53 at 7. - [Chalk of the Day, 17 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-17-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Dodgers at Rockies, 17 Aug 2026. A +180 price implies 35.7%; 5,000 simulations said 38.9%, which is Positive EV at about +9%, and it stays a play down to +157. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 8.2 points, and Tomoyuki Sugano's season form takes 2.5 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 25 of 100 simulations at 4 trips and 56 at 7. - [Chalk of the Day, 16 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-16-alvarez): Yordan Alvarez, over 0.5 home runs, Mariners at Astros, 16 Aug 2026. A +250 price implies 30.0%; 5,000 simulations said 28.6%, which is Roughly Fair, and it becomes a play at +249 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: his own career profile, who he is as a hitter props the number up by 5.8 points, and his own recent form takes 4.1 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 19 of 100 simulations at 3 trips and 34 at 5. - [Chalk of the Day, 15 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-15-alvarez): Yordan Alvarez, over 0.5 home runs, Mariners at Astros, 15 Aug 2026. A +230 price implies 30.3%; 5,000 simulations said 28.0%, which is Negative EV at about -8%, and it becomes a play at +257 or longer. The arms that clear their own noise: the weather props the number up by 6.5 points, and his own recent form takes 3.8 points off. Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 15 of 100 simulations at 3 trips and 50 at 6. - [Chalk of the Day, 14 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-14-caglianone): Jac Caglianone, over 0.5 home runs, Royals at Angels, 14 Aug 2026. A +213 price implies 31.9%; 5,000 simulations said 18.5%, which is Negative EV at about -42%, and it becomes a play at +441 or longer. The hitter is genuinely hot - his season form is the largest arm on the page, worth 3.2 points, on a .064 home run rate and a 93 mph average exit velocity, top 10% of hitters. What takes it back is the pitcher and the park: Grayson Rodriguez's career profile is worth 2.6 points against it on a .241 career strikeout rate and a 96.5 mph fastball, and Angel Stadium ranks 29th of 30 for home runs. Trips matter as much as either - he homers in 15 of 100 simulations at four trips and 27 at six. - [Chalk of the Day, 13 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-13-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber, over 0.5 home runs, Phillies at Twins, 13 Aug 2026. A +238 price implies 29.6%; 5,000 simulations said 26.4%, which is Negative EV at about -11%, and it becomes a play at +279 or longer. This is a top-ten power bat at a bad number, not a bad bet to homer: his career profile props the number up by 7.1 points, the largest arm on the page. What takes it back is the pitcher (Taj Bradley's season form, 4.9 points, and his career rate of .037 homers per batter faced, 210th of 236), Schwarber's own recent form (4.9 points, launch angle 13.8 degrees against 20.7 on the season), and the weather (4.8 points, 70 degrees, 6 mph wind). Trips matter as much as any of it - he homers in 17 of 100 simulations at four trips and 36 at six. - [Chalk of the Day, 12 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-12-murakami): Munetaka Murakami, over 0.5 home runs, Cincinnati at the White Sox, 12 Aug 2026. A +270 price implies 27.0%; 5,000 simulations said 19.3%, which is Negative EV at about -28%, and it becomes a play at +417 or longer. Nothing measured about this hitter separates from the simulator's own noise: his career profile, his season form and the ballpark each move the number under two points, and his recent form takes a similar amount back. What costs him is trips to the plate. He comes up 4.46 times on average, homers 16 in 100 games when he gets four trips and 28 in 100 when he gets six, and six trips happens 3 times in 100. - [Chalk of the Day, 11 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-11-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Kansas City at the Dodgers, 11 Aug 2026. A +219 price implies 31.3%; 5,000 simulations said 25.6%, which is Negative EV at about -18%, and it becomes a play at +291 or longer. This is the second Ohtani home run prop in two days. The case against is his own recent form, worth 3.3 points, and Michael Wacha's season form, worth another 2.7. The case for is Ohtani himself: his career profile as a hitter is worth 5.7 points over an average hitter, and at this price that is the entire argument. - [Chalk of the Day, 10 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-10-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Kansas City at the Dodgers, 10 Aug 2026. A +225 price implies 30.8%; 5,000 simulations said 24.7%, which is Negative EV at about -20%, and it becomes a play at +305 or longer. Every factor we track about the opposing pitcher works against it — Noah Cameron's career profile alone is worth 4.1 points — and being at home costs another 1.6. The only thing holding the price up is Ohtani's own career profile, worth 5.7 points over an average hitter. - [Chalk of the Day, 9 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-09-olson): Matt Olson, over 0.5 home runs, Atlanta at the Yankees, 9 Aug 2026. A +263 price implies 27.5%; 5,000 simulations said 20.5%, which is Negative EV at about -26%, and it becomes a play at +388 or longer. Cam Schlittler's home-run suppression works against it; Olson's season form is worth 3.2 points, the weather 3.1 and his career profile 2.5. - [Chalk of the Day, 8 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-08-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber, any-time home run, Toronto at Philadelphia, 8 Aug 2026. A +231 price implies 30.2%; 5,000 simulations said 27.1%, which is Negative EV at -10%, break-even +269. His own career profile is worth about 8.8 points of the number, his season form 3.4, and Max Scherzer's season form 2.9. Nothing measured against the home run cleared its own noise floor. - [Chalk of the Day, 7 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-07-ohtani): Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Los Angeles at Arizona, 7 Aug 2026. 5,000 simulations said 31.5 out of 100 against a +276 price implying 26.6, which is Positive EV at +19%, break-even +217. His career profile is worth about 8.1 points of the number, the weather 5.7, his season form 3.1, and batting on the road 1.1. Nothing measured against the over cleared its own noise floor. An edge this size is still behind after 300 bets about 1 time in 26. - [Chalk of the Day, 6 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-06-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber to homer, Washington at Philadelphia, 6 Aug 2026. 5,000 simulations said 32.4% against a +190 market middle implying 34.5%, which is Negative EV at -6.1%, break-even +209. His career profile is worth about 8.7 points of the number and is most of it. His season strikeout rate is the largest drag. Neutralising his 20-plate-appearance slump moves the number down, not up. - [Chalk of the Day, 5 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-05-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber to homer priced at +175 (36.4% implied); 5,000 simulations of the game said 31.6%, break-even +217 - [Chalk of the Day, 4 Aug 2026](https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-04-schwarber): Kyle Schwarber to homer priced at +150 (40% implied); 5,000 simulations of the game said 27.7%, break-even +261 - [the whole-board EV census](https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-board-census): 23,059 MLB board selections graded against simulations - 55.5% Negative EV, 75.7% with no edge, and 71.0% negative at +400 or longer - [What the best price is worth](https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-line-shopping): 1,168 MLB games at close — the best of six mainstream retail books beat a typical one by about 1.5% of stake on the moneyline - [Pitcher strikeout props](https://negativeev.com/research/pitcher-strikeout-props): 2,061 props — overs across all lines about -4.5% (outside its noise floor for the first time), unders about -3.6% (inside its own) - [MLB totals](https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-totals): 1,067 games — every over about -4.4%, every under about -0.7% (both inside their noise floor) - [MLB run lines](https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-run-lines): 753 games — home -1.5 about +3.8%, road +1.5 about -5.4% (both inside their noise floor; the third window to order the sides differently) - [MLB moneylines](https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-moneylines): 1,111 games — both sides about -1.8%, favorites -0.8%, underdogs -3.1% (all three point estimates inside their noise floor) - [Anytime home run props](https://negativeev.com/research/anytime-home-run-props): 18,468 props — -23.1% per bet, against -5.1% on hits props in the same pass (both outside their noise floor) - [Batter total bases](https://negativeev.com/research/batter-total-bases): 19,320 props over 1,089 MLB games — overs -6.9%, unders -3.5% at the best price on each side ## Machine-readable surface - Every public page returns clean markdown when requested with `Accept: text/markdown` - [MCP server](https://negativeev.com/mcp): check bets over MCP — stateless Streamable HTTP at POST /mcp; card at https://negativeev.com/.well-known/mcp/server-card.json - [API catalog (RFC 9727)](https://negativeev.com/.well-known/api-catalog) - [Agent skills](https://negativeev.com/.well-known/agent-skills/index.json) - [Authentication guide for agents](https://negativeev.com/auth.md) - [Sitemap](https://negativeev.com/sitemap.xml) ## Optional - [X (site account)](https://x.com/negative__ev): the account that runs NegativeEV and manages the @shoulditail bot; feedback and contact go here - Crawl policy (robots.txt Content-Signal): search=yes, ai-input=yes, ai-train=yes