Are home run props a good bet? What the numbers say

Anytime home run props are the worst-priced common bet on an MLB board. Graded against what actually happened across 18,468 of them, they returned about -23% expected value at the best posted price. That is the average; individual props still vary, and nothing on a bet slip shows which is which.

Written by Jesse, NegativeEV. Last updated 7 August 2026.

An anytime home run prop pays out if the batter homers at any point in the game. The prices look generous, +250, +400, sometimes longer, because home runs are rare: even a good power hitter clears the fence in a small fraction of his games. Rare outcomes are exactly where a sportsbook's margin is hardest to see.

What do home run props actually pay?

About -23% expected value, measured rather than estimated.

That figure covers 18,468 anytime home run props, every archived slate from April 19 through July 31, graded against real outcomes at the best posted price. For every dollar wagered across those props, nearly a quarter of the value was gone at the price.

For comparison, the plainest prop on the same batter in the same game, will he get a hit, came back around -5% over 18,541 props. Same player, same night. The price is what changed.

Home runs are not the only batter market with a graded number now: batter total bases, graded came back negative on both sides.

Why are home run props priced so badly?

Two reasons stack.

First, they are longshots, and longshots carry the widest margins on the board. Graded against the simulations, about seven in ten selections priced at +400 or longer come out negative expected value on their own. A rare outcome lets a book shade the price heavily without the number looking wrong.

Second, they are fun. Fun markets do not need sharp prices to attract bets.

Does that mean every home run prop is a bad bet?

No. An average that bad still contains fairly priced props.

The problem is telling them apart by eye. At +300, the difference between a fair price and a terrible one is a few percentage points of hit rate, and nothing on the slip shows it.

How do you check an MLB home run prop?

Compare the batter's real chance of homering to the chance the price implies.

NegativeEV simulates the game thousands of times, pitch by pitch, and counts how often the batter actually homers across those games. That rate is the true probability. Only then does the price enter, and the gap between the two is the expected value.

Paste a bet slip or type the bet at negativeev.com. Ten free checks a day, unlimited when signed in.

What does this page not cover?

Whether a specific prop tonight is priced well. That depends on the batter, the pitcher, the park and the weather, and it changes every day.

The -23% is a market-wide average over a fixed window, not a rule about any one bet. And a bet that cannot be matched to a simulated game comes back ungraded rather than guessed at.

More on the number: https://negativeev.com/about/expected-value The measurement behind this page: https://negativeev.com/research/anytime-home-run-props