Chalk of the Day, 6 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber to homer
The chalkiest selection on the 6 August board, taken apart on camera.
Written by Jesse, NegativeEV. Last updated 6 August 2026.
Watch: https://youtube.com/watch?v=YirJ3QEM78c
- Sample: 5,000 pitch-by-pitch simulations of one game
- Window: 6 August 2026 slate
- Priced at: Market middle +190, read on the day of the game
- Measured: 2026-08-06
The bet
Washington at Philadelphia, 6 August. The chalkiest selection on the board was Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at some point in the game.
:
| Selection | Kyle Schwarber to homer |
|---|---|
| Price | +190, the middle of the board (DraftKings +216, FanDuel +215) |
| That price implies | 34.5% |
| Our simulations say | 32.4% |
| Verdict | Negative EV |
| EV | -6.1% |
| Becomes break-even at | +209 |
Five thousand simulations of the game had him going deep in 32 of 100 of them. At +190 that costs 6.1% of the stake, which is Negative EV. It reaches break-even at +209, and the two longest prices on the board were past that, so it was about fair money there rather than good.
The number is mostly just who he is
> And as you could guess, the most important factor is the fact that he's Kyle Schwarber. His career profile as a hitter is mostly what is propping up these simulations.
Measured, his career profile is worth about 8.7 points of that 32.4%. Swap him for a league-average hitter and the same game comes back at 24 in 100. Nothing else in the run is close. He is 3rd of 280 hitters in career home run rate and 7th in exit velocity, and that is most of what the price is paying for.
The drag is the strikeout rate
> He's striking out too much. He's striking out almost more than anyone else in the league, actually.
That is the largest thing holding the number down, and it holds up. His season strikeout rate is 34.8%, which ranks 277th of the 280 hitters in the pool. Take his season form out and the number climbs from 32 in 100 to about 35 in 100.
His slump is not the problem
He had no hits in his last 20 plate appearances and struck out in nearly half of them. That is the thing anyone would blame, and it is measurably not what is holding this bet down. Neutralise that recent window and the number moves the other way, from 32 in 100 down to 31 in 100. The effect is small and the margin of error on it is wider than the effect itself, so the direction is not something we can stand behind either. What it does rule out is the obvious story. The slump is not the drag here. The season line is.
What else moved it
Warm weather with the wind blowing out to center is worth about 4 points, and Citizens Bank Park, 9th of 30 parks for home runs, about 2.4 more. Against him, what Miles Mikolas has been throwing lately costs about 1.9 points, and batting on the home side costs about the same, because Schwarber's fifth trip to the plate only happens if Philadelphia bats in the bottom of the ninth.
Method
The game is simulated pitch by pitch 5,000 times from the projected lineups, and the prop is graded on how often it lands. Each factor above is a separate re-run of the same game with one input replaced by a league-average stand-in, so those sizes are one-at-a-time swings and do not add up to the total.
Inside the noise floor
One prop in one game is a single draw. A 32-in-100 event happens about a third of the time, so this being a bad price is entirely consistent with Schwarber homering. We check a price the public is already taking. We do not pick it.
Written up for readers: https://negativeev.com/about/home-run-props All findings: https://negativeev.com/research