Chalk of the Day, 4 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber at +150

The most-bet home run prop on the 4 August board, taken apart on camera and published here as spoken.

Written by Jesse, NegativeEV. Last updated 4 August 2026.

The bet

Welcome to the MLB Chalk of the Day, August 4th, 2026.

Today's chalk, Kyle Schwarber, anytime home run at an absolutely absurd price of +150. That price implies that he'll hit a home run about 40% of the time. Our sims say it'll happen about 27% of the time. If by miracle this line shifts, then just know that it needs to hit better than +261 for this to be a positive EV play.

Why it grades negative

Okay, let's dig in. Why is it negative other than obviously that it's just absurdly overpriced?

The most obvious reason, his recent form. Schwarber's hit one home run since the all-star break and he's been striking out about 50% of the time.

The pitcher

There's also the pitcher he's facing, Carson Palmquist. We don't know much about this pitcher. It's never a good thing. It means we're guessing, and guessing on home run props at +150 is not a good long-term strategy.

So really anyone claiming that this pitcher gives up a lot of home runs, or he gives up a lot of fly balls, they're making statements based on very limited data. Yes, the limited data shows that, but it could not be true. Very likely it could not be true. It could also be true, but we don't know. It's a small sample size.

And while we're at it, if we're cherry-picking limited data, then also know that the data shows that this pitcher struggles with command. And with Schwarber's elite eye, you don't want that. It means he's going to be walking when he should be swinging for the fences.

And there's also the fact that our model just doesn't like this matchup. There is something about this pitcher's profile, something about his pitch mix, that is bringing down Schwarber's home run rate in our simulations.

That's kind of what we do. We run simulations many different times, kind of taking out factors, just to kind of get some insight into the model as to why it's choosing certain things. And it just doesn't like the matchup.

You know, and you can look at it too. Keep in mind, this pitcher is a sidearm lefty, a really difficult release point for left-handed hitters. And that's something we know.

The other side

Okay, as for the other side, what's working in Schwarber's favor? You know, maybe there's something big working in his favor. Well, no, not much. He's hitting in a mildly hitter-friendly park. The weather is mild. You know, it doesn't really hurt or help either way. It's not like the wind is just blowing out to right field.

So really, if you're taking this pick, you're taking it, what, off of a gut feel that Schwarber is due. I mean, maybe he is, but it's not a great way to bet.

Verdict

Okay, so verdict, negative EV.

The claims, checked

Schwarber had hit exactly one home run since the All-Star break, in 60 plate appearances over 14 games, on 18 July. Carson Palmquist is left-handed and releases the ball 4.88 feet off the ground - the 4th percentile among the 534 pitchers with 200 or more pitches thrown this season - and 2.87 feet to the side, the 94th percentile. Schwarber had never faced him.

Method

The game is simulated pitch by pitch 5,000 times from the projected lineups, and the prop is graded on how often it comes in across those simulations; the price is the best of nine books at the time of the run and the break-even price is the American odds at which the simulated rate would be a fair bet. The read on which factors matter is produced by re-running the same game with one input neutralised at a time, 38 of them here, and comparing the resulting home run rate against the full run - so it describes what this model is reacting to, not a measured causal effect in the world.

Inside the noise floor

One prop in one game is a single draw, and nothing here is a claim about how the pipeline performs over a season: a 27.7% event happens more than a quarter of the time, so this bet losing money on average is entirely consistent with Schwarber homering tonight.

Written up for readers: https://negativeev.com/about/home-run-props All findings: https://negativeev.com/research