Are player prop bets a good bet?

The props measured so far include the most expensive bets found on an MLB board, but they are nowhere near equally priced. Graded against what actually happened in the games, some props sit near fair and others are among the worst prices you can take. The word "prop" tells you almost nothing about whether it's a good bet.

Written by Jesse, NegativeEV. Last updated 12 August 2026.

Which player props are the worst bets?

Anytime home run props are the worst-priced bet measured on an MLB board so far. Graded against real outcomes, 18,468 of them returned about -23% at the best posted price, a figure far outside its noise floor. Pitcher strikeout props over the same window came back at about -4.5% on 2,061 props, a figure that narrowly clears its own noise floor on the bigger sample. Same idea, one player, one game, and nothing like the same price. The strikeout figure has its own writeup too: the strikeout measurement shows the grading behind it.

Why are some player props so much worse than others?

Two things drive it. First, the price band: home run props almost always sit at +400 or longer, the longshot range where the house edge is thickest, while strikeout lines hover near even money where the margin is thin. Second, action: a book prices a moneyline tight because it takes heavy two-way action and has to keep both sides roughly balanced. A home run prop takes far less, and mostly one-sided action, everyone wants the yes, so the book can pad the price without losing business.

What do batter total bases props cost?

Batter total bases is one of the highest-volume props on an MLB board, and it now has a graded number. Across 19,320 total bases props from 1,089 games over 88 slates, 2026-04-19 through 2026-07-31, priced at the best number posted on each side and graded against real outcomes: the overs implied a 49.4% chance of cashing, hit 46.1% of the time, and realized about -6.9% per bet. The unders implied 55.4%, hit 53.6%, and realized about -3.5%. Both sides came out negative in every month of that window and in both halves of the price range.

That cost is mostly the price, not the side. The average sportsbook's two-sided margin on this market was 6.99% over the same 19,320 props, and taking the best available number on each side across books it was still 5.10%. One side's realized cost lands above that figure and the other below it. A market that charges 5% at its cheapest does not need either side to be wrong for both sides to lose money.

Does one side of a total bases prop pay better?

Not on this evidence. Split by line over the same window and price basis, the 0.5 props (about 8,249 of them) returned roughly -6.2% on overs and -4.7% on unders; the 1.5 props (about 11,024) returned roughly -7.2% and -2.6%. The two sides differ, and the gap is close enough to the measurement's own margin of error that it does not establish either side as mispriced. The 2.5 line graded on about 45 props, far too few to read at all. What the census pins down is the cost of the market, not a side to prefer.

Are player props ever worth betting?

Sometimes. The point isn't that every prop is bad. It's that the label tells you nothing. A specific strikeout line against a swing-heavy lineup, or a home run price in a small park with the wind blowing out, can be fair or even positive. Averages describe a market; they do not price the one line in front of you. That's found by pricing the individual game.

What does this page not establish?

Which of the other prop markets cost what. Three have been graded here: anytime home runs, pitcher strikeouts, and batter total bases. An MLB board carries many more, including hits, doubles, runs batted in, walks and outs recorded. Nothing on this page says what those charge, and the gap between the three that were measured is the reason not to guess.

It also does not sort one line from the next. Every figure is an average across a whole market at the best posted price, so it describes what the market charged, not whether the prop in front of you is priced wrong. The home run and strikeout figures come from one window and the total bases figures from another, so the three are not a like-for-like read on the same slate. And all of it is baseball. Nothing here covers the prop boards for tennis, golf or basketball.

How can a player prop be checked before betting?

The reliable way is to compute the true probability from a simulation of the actual game, then compare it to the sportsbook's price. NegativeEV simulates each game thousands of times, play by play, and reports the true probability and expected value for any prop, strikeouts, hits, home runs, total bases, for free at negativeev.com, with no account.

More on the number: https://negativeev.com/about/expected-value The total bases measurement behind this page: https://negativeev.com/research/batter-total-bases

Related reads: every market measured so far and the worst-priced common bet.