Are moneyline bets a good bet?

A moneyline is just a bet on which team wins. Of all the common MLB bets, it is typically the closest to fairly priced. Graded against what actually happens over 1,111 games, the average moneyline came back around -2% expected value - a figure that does not separate from zero at that sample size, which is itself the point: the market is close enough to fair that even a thousand games cannot tell it apart from fair. Player props are not close. It is the boring bet, and boring is cheap here.

Written by Jesse, NegativeEV. Last updated 12 August 2026.

Why are moneylines priced so close to fair?

A moneyline takes heavy action on both sides, so the sportsbook has to price it tight to keep the money balanced. A line that is off draws sharp money fast, which forces it back toward the real number. The book still keeps its small margin, but there is little room to pad the price, so it stays near the true probability.

How do moneylines compare to props?

It is the same game, and often the same players, but the price is far better. Moneylines came back around -2% over 1,111 games, inside the noise on that sample. Batter hit props run around -5% across 18,541 graded props and anytime home run props about -23% across 18,468, both far outside theirs. The more specific and longshot the bet, the more the book pads it. The plain bet is the cheap one.

The plain bet was also measured outside baseball: nineteen seasons of tennis prices grade the same market on ATP matches.

Are moneylines ever a bad bet?

Yes. Near-fair on average does not mean fair on every game. A heavy favorite at a steep price can still be negative EV if the simulation says it wins less often than -250 implies. Fair pricing across the whole board is not the same as a good price on the one game in front of you.

How can a moneyline be checked before betting?

Compare the posted price to the true win probability from a simulation of that game. NegativeEV simulates each game thousands of times, play by play, and reports the win probability and expected value for either side, for free at negativeev.com, with no account.

What does this page not establish?

That moneylines are exactly fair, or that they can be beaten.

The average on this page sits inside its own noise floor, which means the sample could not read the number rather than that the price is right. Every price in it is the best one posted across books, so a bettor who cannot reach the book holding that number is not looking at the same figure. Games missing from the play-by-play corpus were left out rather than filled in, so the measurement describes the games it could grade.

The measurement behind this page: moneylines graded against real winners

Related reads: every market measured so far, the rake, explained, and the worst-priced common bet.